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<h1 style="text-align: center;">CREATE-task# # -</h1> <h1 style="text-align: center;">TLDR - really</h1> <h2>[previously]</h2> <ol> <li><strong></strong><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN </strong></li> <ol> <li>[] # 3819 - <a href="/view/task?id=3294" target="_blank">CREATE-article-TLDR</a> - really - ] by Garth Turner @greaterfool.ca - <strong>[what]</strong> gives with GTA RE about to report it's best July e v e r, against a backdrop of economic slaughter <strong>[why]</strong> as previously reported(aPR), ] pent up demand, ] low supply, ] cheap money, ] ...<strong>[where]</strong> Is this a ] dead cat bounce? ] a return to normal? ] a new era of ...? - the real question is - what comes next?<strong></strong> <strong>[observations]</strong> growing odds of ] #stayHome #2, ] covid wave #2, ] tighter credit, ] tough sledding for business ] structural unemployment ] less government largesse,<strong> [conclusions]</strong> 1] this is NOT the end of normal, pandemics pass 2] If you do reasonable things, the outcome will be fine. 3] Is buying a house at a historically high price in a bidding war during a public health crisis in the middle of the worst recession since the 1930s with millions out of work and just prior to another potential economic lockdown one of those things?</li> </ol> <li><strong>[2020-08-06][00:00] NEW task IN </strong></li> <ol> <li>[x] # # - POSTED id= 728893, comment# =176</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[currently]</h2> <ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN </strong></li> <ol> <li>[] # # - <a href="/view/task?id=1839" target="_blank">CREATE-task# # </a>-</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[next]</h2> <ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN comment selections<br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[] reviewed 54/54+ for steerage selections</li> <li>[] reviewed #/175+ for steerage selections</li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN comment selections<br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[] looking for comments relevant to ] {topic}, ] {topic},</li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN comment selections<br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[] pickED selections(),</li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN comment selection <br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[] included relevant thoughts - ex ] , ]</li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN post ... <br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[] POSTED - TLDR to ] @greaterfool,ca</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[reference]</h2> <div><ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN money/plan-money/research-garth<br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[] # # - <a href="https://www.greaterfool.ca/2020/08/04/really-6/" target="_blank">really- Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate</a> </li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN ?money/document-money/research-garth<br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[x] # 3308 - <a href="/view/task?id=3308" target="_blank">CREATE-task# # </a>- <a href="/view/task?id=3308" target="_blank">LIST-ACRONYMS</a> - @greaterfool.ca</li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN money/document-money/research-garth<br /></strong></li> <ol> <li>[x] # 3313 - <a href="/view/task?id=3313" target="_blank">CREATE-task# # </a>- <a href="/view/task?id=3313" target="_blank">LIST-TIPS-markup</a> - @greaterfool.ca - on using html to markup(format) your comments @greaterfool.ca blog</li> </ol> <li><strong>[00:00] NEW task IN </strong><strong>money/document-money/research-garth</strong></li> <ol> <li>[i] # 3320 - <a href="/view/task?id=3320" target="_blank">CREATE-task# # </a>- <a href="/view/task?id=3320" target="_blank">LIST-CATEGORIES</a> - @greaterfool.ca - classify articles by ..., classify comments by ...</li> </ol></ol></div> <div>></div> <div><hr /></div> <h1 style="text-align: center;">the wise sage</h1> <p>>This week – perhaps tomorrow – real estate boards will start reporting July stats. They will be, at least in Toronto (and perhaps Montreal, Van and Victoria) wholly detached from reality. Buyer activity will not reflect millions of people on the dole,...</p> <p> <span style="background-color: #ffff99;">Against this backdrop of economic slaughter, get this: Toronto realtors this week will report last month was the best July ever.</span> <span style="background-color: #ffff99;">Sales were up 23% from the same period last year,</span></p> <p><span style="background-color: #ffff99;">“Seemingly unbelievable,” says Re/Max dude Robert Ebe,</span> who has fashioned this chart:</p> <p>So <span style="background-color: #ffff99;">why did the better part of 11,000 buyers take the plunge</span> in the last four weeks, pushing prices ahead by double-digit amounts in a flurry of blind auctions and bully bids?</p> <p><span style="background-color: #ffff99;">How can real estate in the GTA hit new record pricing in the midst of a global pandemic with Depression-era joblessness and government benefits running out? Huh?</span></p> <p>Ebe asks three things. ] Is the market in a dead cat bounce? (You throw a deceased feline out the window… it bounces… but it’s still dead.) ] Is this just normal coming-back? ] Or are we into a new era of currency devaluation and big inflation now that the government has blown everything on Covid and printed more money than God has?</p> <p>Well, <span style="background-color: #ffff99;">the reasons for July were stated here a few months ago</span> (we told you it was coming). Pent-up demand from house-horny people who couldn’t buy in the spring (lockdown), combined with scant inventory (sellers too scared to sell) in an era of 2% mortgages (because of the virus). Boom. Up she goes.</p> <p><span style="background-color: #ffff99;">The real question is what comes next.</span> Was July possibly the worst month ever to spend $1.8 million on a slanty semi in a hip hood, or are all the scary times over?</p> <p>Realistically, the odds are growing (sadly) that politicians may drop the hammer again with little provocation if the polling persists. Have you noticed how they kinda like states of emergency, with no legislatures sitting, no opposition leaders squawking, no question periods and lots of shiny new powers? This benevolent dictatorship is now wholly supported by a majority of Canadians. Over 80% want the key US-Canada border shut for a long, long time. A survey out Tuesday found 73% support for another wholesale economic shutdown in the event of a second wave of Covid. “Even with the economic uncertainty, Canadians are quite receptive to a shutdown of the economy again if there was a resurgence,” says pollster Nik Nanos.</p> <p>Meanwhile, guess what? A second wave emerging. In Australia, Britain, Germany, California, Japan. With luck, common sense and soap we’ll avoid that here. But if clusters of cases emerge in the GTA, there’s little doubt the mayor and the premier will drop the hammer.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the lenders – after months and months of reduced mortgage revenues – are struggling to maintain profitability, control risk and deal with bum business and consumer loans (more than $11 billion was set aside for this). Do you think they’ll be more selective about lending in a renewed pandemic? Duh.</p> <p> And the government cannot continue to shield us all from virus reality.</p> <p>The economic stimulus for Canadian individuals has been generous, so many working-class Canadians haven’t really felt a major economic pinch as a result of the pandemic.”</p> <p>It’s clear this program – which costs well over $20 billion per month – is unsustainable. Public finances are being shredded. The only long-term solution is less spending and increased taxes. That will include increased tax on land transfers, home ownership and possibly sale proceeds.</p> <p> </p> <hr /> <h1 style="text-align: center;">reflections - moi</h1> <p>></p> <p> </p> <hr /> <h1 style="text-align: center;">the unruly steerage section - selections</h1> <p><strong> #3 YouKnowWho on 08.04.20 at 3:33 pm</strong><br /><br /> I still don’t get it.<br /><br /> 2bdrm condo in Toronto going for about $600-700K (unless you count 1bdrm plus DEN as a windowless 2bdrm)<br /> You’ll have about $2500-3000 taxes. $700-1000 monthly maintenance fee.<br /><br /> $3000-3500 mortgage and $1000 in taxes/fees. You end up at $4000-4500 a month.<br /><br /> I could easily rent a nice 2bdrm for $2000-2200 – 1/2 of that.<br /><br /> Can someone explain to me like a 5 year old why I would pay 2x to “OWN” something I can rent for 1/2 the price?<br /><br /> I mean, $2000-$2500 a month is not something an average person finds on the sidewalk?<br /><br /> WHY would I pay 2x or more for the 2 bdrm to pretend I OWN IT?<br /><br /></p> <p> </p>