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ID/Title:
4158
,
Hunting-Unicorns
Description Article:
PREV=predictions-2015 ] vc prediction articles ] compiled list of vc predictions ] my predictions ]
Library:
business/startup-guide/ch-002-ideas
Photo FileName:
crystal-ball.jpg
Author:
View Author
Created:
2015-01-02-14:05:59
business - library
business - warehouses
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<h1 style="text-align: center;">Hunting Unicorns</h1> <h2>[WHAT]</h2> <p><strong>] THE GAME</strong></p> <ol> <li>]<strong> Imagine for a moment that you had 1B $$ that you HAD TO invest in the "startup market"</strong></li> <li>] It's hard to pick the winners, you kind of "have to" be able to "predict the future", or follow/copy someone who can, </li> <li>] I don't think that I would want that weight on my shoulders as I can also imagine, that losing a B $ of someone else's money might make it a bit hard to sleep well at night. Even worse would be losing a B of your own money :(</li> <li>] Anyways, that doesnt have to stop us from playing armchair quarterback and speculate on who might be the big winners in tech startup space in the year ahead.</li> <li>] To begin, lets take a look to see what some of the VC's from a # of different VC firms have publically stated as there predictions going forward into 2015.</li> </ol> <p><strong>] LISTS - Venture Capitalists(VCs) make predictions for 2015 - 8 articles, 68 predictions, 15 VCs, </strong></p> <ol> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4159" target="_blank">avc</a> - 11 predictions from <a href="/view/person?id=313" target="_blank">Fred Wilson</a>, partner at union sqare ventures, with 1B invested in 6 funds</li> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4160" target="_blank">fortune</a> - 5 predictions from <a href="/view/person?id=314" target="_blank">Sergio Monsalve</a> - partner @norwest venture partners, ...</li> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4157" target="_blank">techcrunch</a> - 17 predictions from 7 different VC's from multiple VC firms, 22B invested in</li> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4175" target="_blank">techvibes</a> - 4 predictions from <a href="/view/person?id=315" target="_blank">Boris Wertz</a>, founding partner at version one ventures, #B invested in, A canadian VC,</li> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4185" target="_blank">forbes</a> - 5 predictions from 5 different VC's from 5 different VC firms</li> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4196" target="_blank">businessinsider</a> - 16 predictions from 11 different VC's from 7 different firms.</li> <li><strong>] bonus</strong></li> <ol> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4186" target="_blank">idc Top 10 Technology Predictions For 2015</a> - 10 predictions from research firm IDC's predictions team. They take a look at the tech industry as a whole and where they feel the growth will be in the year ahead.</li> </ol> <li><strong>] more</strong></li> <ol> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4222" target="_blank">recode</a> - 8 predictions from Steven Sinofsky, board partner @Andreesen Horowitz</li> <li>] <a href="http://www.avcj.com/avcj/interview/2387204/the-crystal-ball-predictions-for-2015" target="_blank">The crystal ball predictions for 2015 - AVCJ</a> -</li> <li>] <a href="http://fortune.com/2014/12/04/predictions-2015-future-business/" target="_blank">http://fortune.com/2014/12/04/predictions-2015-future-business/</a> - not VC's, not only tech, but some</li> <li>]</li> </ol></ol> <p><strong>] THE LIST - All VC predictions for 2015 - compiled</strong></p> <ol> <li>] Here is a <a href="/view/article?id=4200" target="_blank">LIST ALL - VC predictions for 2015 - Compiled</a> </li> <ol> <li>] the predictions are categorized by "market sector"</li> <li>*] interesting observations? - we can see a couple of trends and some consensus emerging amongst the VCs ...</li> </ol></ol> <p><strong>] LIST - startup company - market sectors</strong></p> <ol> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4161" target="_blank">LIST - STARTUP MARKET SECTORS</a> - because there are at least a trillion new startup companies out there today, ive created a list of "startup market sectors" to help us keep them organized. These "startup sectors" are similar to the sectors used in the traditional capital markets to group/categorize/organize companies by the industry that they operate within. While the traditional markets group most internet companies into a handful of categories (IT, IT Services, Technology) this lists expands upon some of those categories to more closely align with the current "market sectors" that are attracting startup attention.</li> </ol> <p><strong>?] HISTORY - past predictions/results</strong></p> <ol> <li>?] forbes - ] fred w (le web 2013, predictions 2014)</li> <li>] interesting ? a look back at last years predictions from .. to see how they fared</li> </ol> <p><strong>] LIST - startup companies</strong></p> <ol> <li>] Ive compiled a <span style="text-decoration: underline;">list of startup companies</span>, that meet <span style="text-decoration: underline;">the criteria</span> for our game</li> <li>] You can add any additional startup company that meets the criteria.</li> <li><strong>] REMEMBER <span style="background-color: #ff0000;">we are NOT</span> investing in exisisting technology stocks here,that is <span style="text-decoration: underline;">a different game ;)</span> that goes for either "new age/web 2.0" tech stocks like (</strong>twitter, facebook, alibaba,<strong> ...) or "</strong><strong>old guard/web 1.0" tech stocks </strong>(amazon,google, apple, msft, bbry, intel, qualcomm,)</li> <ol> <li>a different game --> STOCKS tech picks for 2015 - ] BBRY, ] MSFT, ] GOOG, ] AAPL, ] QCOM, ] AMZN, ]</li> </ol> <li><strong><span style="background-color: #00ff00;">WE ARE </span>(hypothetically) investing in Startup COMPANIES (pre IPO)</strong></li> <li>] we will include those startups that "rumours & speculation" have on the verge of ipo like (Dropbox, Box, ...)</li> <li><strong>] companies</strong></li> <ol> <li>] + shopify ipo,</li> <li>] ? stripe, twitch.t</li> <li>] Patch - check ART ] leaving android for ios - regret - LIST apps with intents</li> <li>] timeline.com</li> </ol></ol> <p><strong>] ME - My Predictions for 2015</strong></p> <ol> <li>] see the Example section below for my predictions, i have listed each company by the market sector that they compete in.</li> </ol> <p><strong>] YOU - what about you?, GET in the THE GAME!</strong></p> <ol> <li>] what do you think? who would you pick? Make your picks and play the game,</li> <li><strong>] you can win real money!!!</strong></li> </ol> <p><strong>] VALUATIONS, SETTING COMPANY VALUATIONS </strong></p> <ol> <li><strong>] in order to pick a winner/</strong>determine who wins this game, we need to assign values to each of these companies.</li> <ol> <li>] a "begining value" at the start of the period,</li> <li>] an "ending value" at the end of the period</li> </ol> <li><strong>] the value will be based on the "startup companies" last raise.</strong></li> <ol> <li>] if they have another capital raise the value per share will be adjusted to the most recent valuation</li> <li>] example xiamo raised 1.1B, valuation 45 B, share value = xx.xx</li> <li>] example snapchat raised 485M on a valuation of x B, share value = xx.xx</li> </ol> <li><strong>] if the company has not raised any capital</strong></li> <ol> <li>] the shares will be valued at 1.00 each, with a purchase limit of 100M units. (if the company doesnt raise any money, the value of its shares will still be $1.00 at the end of the year, if they are still operating.)</li> </ol> <li><strong>] pre IPO, IPO pending - valuation so</strong></li> <ol> <li>] example dropbox</li> </ol> <li><strong>] WHAT IF</strong></li> <ol> <li>] ipo,</li> <li>] out-of-business</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[WHY]</h2> <ol> <li>] We (sospep) are going to build a <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><a href="/view/article?id=4161" target="_blank">compiled list of predictions</a></strong></span> for 2015 from some of the industry leaders in the Venture Capital market.</li> <ol> <li>] We (can/may) then use that list for guidance/direction in selecting companies for <strong>our startup companies portfolio</strong>.</li> <li>] We may also track these "predictors" to see how accurate they turn out to be with their predictions.(for future reference FFR)</li> </ol> <li><strong>] PLAY "Hunting Unicorns"- for fun & profit </strong></li> <ol> <li>] see the "how to" section below for details on joining</li> </ol> <li><strong>] FUN - tracking some of the most interesting startup companies in the world today</strong></li> <ol> <li>] who will be the next google? how will that companies product(s) change our lives, your life?</li> </ol> <li><strong>] FUN - discovery</strong></li> <ol> <li>] the next important / interesting app, the next must have gadget, gizmo or trinket. The company making it is going to surface here long before you see it in the app store or read about it on theVerge.</li> </ol> <li><strong>] PROFIT</strong></li> <ol> <li>] We (sospep) are offering real money ( $ xxx.xx - canadian dollars) - in a winner takes all contest. Pick a team of startup companies to create your portfolio and then compare the performance of your portfolio to the rest of the players in the startup game.</li> <li>] pssssssssst .... <span style="text-decoration: underline;">my top 3 tips</span> on how you can win this game!!</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[WHERE]</h2> <ol> <li>] <a href="/view/article/predictions-2015">http://sospep.com/view/article/predictions-2015</a></li> <ol> <li>] list predictions</li> <li>] list companies</li> <li>] list sectors</li> <li>] list players</li> <li>] leaderboard</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[WHEN]</h2> <ol> <li>] GAME ON - 2015-01-01</li> <li>] GAME END - 2015-12-31</li> </ol> <h2>[EXAMPLE portfolio ]</h2> <ol> <li><strong>CAPITAL</strong></li> <ol> <li>] ipo uber</li> </ol> <li><strong>EDUCATION</strong></li> <ol> <li>] udemy</li> </ol> <li><strong>IOT</strong></li> <ol> <li>] <span style="text-decoration: line-through;">nest</span>,</li> </ol> <li><strong>MAKERS </strong><ol> <li>] thingcharger</li> </ol></li> <li><strong>MARKETPLACES</strong></li> <ol> <li>] zillow</li> </ol> <li><strong>MEDIA</strong></li> <ol> <li>] afternines,</li> </ol> <li><strong>MESSAGING</strong></li> <ol> <li>] snapchat?</li> </ol> <li><strong>MOBILE</strong></li> <ol> <li>] xiaomi?</li> </ol> <li><strong>PAYMENTS</strong><ol> <li>] square</li> </ol></li> <li><strong>RENTAL</strong></li> <ol> <li>] uber?</li> </ol> <li><strong>SaaS-enterprise</strong></li> <ol> <li>] slack</li> </ol> <li><strong>SaaS-consumer</strong></li> <ol> <li>] squarespace,</li> </ol> <li><strong>SM</strong><ol> <li>] reddit, </li> </ol></li> <li><strong>WEARABLES</strong></li> <ol> <li>] fitbit</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[HOW-TO]</h2> <ol> <li><strong>] <a href="/Account/Register" target="_blank">Register for sospep</a></strong></li> <ol> <li>] don't worry, we won't spam you, we don't track you and we won't sell your info, not now, not ever. sospep comes with <span style="text-decoration: underline;">lots of perks</span>, but you don't have to use them if you don't want too. ps its free to join!</li> </ol> <li><strong>] Pick your "team" of startup companies</strong></li> <ol> <li>] i know, I know, that sounds like it could be a hassle, decisions to make, time consuming, but i'm going to let you in on <span style="text-decoration: underline;">a little secret</span> that can have your team up and running in < 5 minutes.</li> </ol> <li><strong>] Check your status</strong></li> <ol> <li>] heres the catch!, you knew it was coming didnt you? you've got to check your status at least once a month. Don't worry, we will send you an email to remind you and we will make it quick and easy (< 1 min) to check in.</li> </ol> <li><strong>] Add new companies</strong></li> <ol> <li>] So you've found that 1 hot new product or exciting new startup company that you thing is going to be <span style="text-decoration: underline;">the next big thing</span>, but it's NOT on our list of startup companies. No worries it's quick and easy to <span style="text-decoration: underline;">add any new startup company</span>, that you want too. </li> </ol> <li><strong>] Update company valuations</strong></li> <ol> <li>]</li> </ol></ol> <h2>[REFERENCE]</h2> <ol> <li><strong>] </strong><a href="/view/article?id=4158" target="_blank"><strong>Hunting Unicorns</strong></a><strong> </strong>- a new sospep project. I am creating a portfolio of startup companies (you can too). The GOAL is to <strong>discover</strong> the next uber, before it becomes <strong>the next uber</strong>. Think of this as a learning exersize for aspiring angel investors, you can play for fun, profit ... Its free to join and you can win real money. Check out some of the things we've discovered so far ...<ol> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4200" target="_blank">vc predictions for 2015 - a compilation</a> - over 60+ predictions from 20+ differenent VCs representing over 20 different VC firms.</li> <li>] observation - HOT SECTORS for 2015 (TOP 3) - ] capital ] new enterprise ] marketplaces</li> <li>] observation - HOT SECTORS for 2015 (RUNNER UP) - ] security, ] cloud, ] big data</li> <li>] observation - NOT SECTORS for 2015 - no activity (crickets) in ( ] SocialMedia, ] SaaS-Consumer, )</li> <li>] <a href="/view/article?id=4161" target="_blank">list startup sectors</a> - includes exampes of startup companies to watch in each sector</li> </ol></li> </ol> <p> </p> <h1 style="text-align: center;"> </h1>
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